The Chase is designed to tighten up a ‘runaway’ season in the points, just like a caution does in a race, but does it allow the most deserving driver to win?
Maybe not, but what is the description of the most deserving driver?
This is not an article designed to generate comments about what should be done differently to make the Championship battle better, but more to discuss if what we have is the best possible representation of a true Champion in our sport.
It’s not as tough as it is in the stick and ball sports where in football, for example, a team can win every game of the season and still lose the Championship game and that’s it, they lost.
Stock car racing isn’t near as tough. There is not one, final race that a driver has to necessarily win in order to win the Championship. He can simply perform well throughout the ten race Chase and acquire the most points during that time and be crowned the Champion.
Even with bonus points for wins during the regular season, the points system is still structured to award consistency more than just wins. That is evident from a few seasons back when Kasey Kahne had the most wins going into the Chase and nearly didn’t make it in. Ironically, he has two wins this season and is out of the Chase.
Add in the fact that 5 of the 12 drivers in the Chase have no wins at all in the regular season and the point is made even further.
What about the other end of the spectrum? Kyle Busch has 8 victories so far this season, took the points lead after the second race of the season and only relinquished it once, then quickly took it back. After the points reset he has Carl Edwards hot on his heels just 30 points behind. For the traditionalist, under the old points system Busch would have a 207 point lead over Edwards.
Depending on how the Chase unfolds will no doubt determine the ‘success’ of the Chase system in that if anyone beside Kyle wins the Championship it will have worked perfectly. Especially if under the ‘old’ points system he would win the Championship despite how he performed in the final ten races of the season.
Forget popularity, forget making it more ‘fair’ for all of the drivers in the Chase or more exciting for the fans, is it the right way to determine a Champion in our sport?
The fact of the matter is that if Dale Earnhardt, Jr. had 8 wins so far this season and had locked the Championship up with ten races to go, to a large percentage of the fans the points reset would be the worst thing that NASCAR had ever done. Being that it’s Kyle Busch, not so much.
That’s the problem with any rule or system that the sanctioning body implements in that depending on who the beneficiary is and who it hurts will affect the opinions of it by the fans. It’s what is known as the double edge sword in that it can cut both ways. Don’t forget that this is the system that denied Jeff Gordon his 5th Championship in 2004 and again in 2007. We have all been reminded of that plenty.
Is the fan’s hope that Busch will struggle the last ten races and fall by the wayside? Would that be some sort of vindication of the criticisms of the Chase format if that is the way it works out?
It doesn’t seem fair, but quoting one of the beat writers, David Poole, “Fair is where you buy funnel cakes”.
In using the football analogy, it is no different than in other sports to have a team dominate the season and yet after the reset fall short and lose the title. It just hasn’t been this way in stock car racing.
The Craftsman Truck & Nationwide Series have seemed to work out their points ‘blowouts’ the old fashioned way, by leveling the competition. They do not operate under a ‘playoff’ system and yet in both series the points battle is extremely close as well as exciting.
The end result might wind up be the same, but it just seems more legitimate when the driver who prevails in the series did it unmitigated and steps up to be crowned Champ in New York without any tweaking of the points.
It’s not so much a manipulation of the outcome because all of the drivers have an equal chance to perform well in the final 10 races in the Cup series. Call it more of a mini-series or a microcosm of the season that will determine the eventual no. 1 driver.
The purists still don’t like it and don’t mind even if it is a 700 point blowout under the old system. NASCAR in preserving the ‘Show’ has decided that would not be a good thing and they may be right.
I still say that the popularity of it will depend on who is crowned The Champion after Homestead.
Friday, September 12, 2008
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Have NASCAR Fans Gotten What They Wanted In 2008?
So far the predictions of a more competitive season have not panned out as earlier thought. The lack of different winners, usual suspects and first timers in victory lane and domination from one driver is not what was expected when the season began. Is this a trend or just a temporary condition that is sorting itself out as we speak?
Early season expectations
The predictions are based on the email comments we received from the fans at the start of the season in regards to how they thought the year would progress. The overwhelming majority said that because of the implementation of the COT there should be a wider array of winners, more first time winners and a more evenly matched chase field when it drew down to the end of the season.
Big names winless
We all expect to see certain teams struggle throughout the season and even a few top level teams dropping off in performance, but no one could have predicted the big names that are winless so far this season.
If someone had told you that at the beginning of the year that Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick would all be winless headed into the Chase you would have said they were crazy.
Lack of different winners, underdogs and first timers
After Richmond [the Chase cutoff] there have only been ten different winners and of those 6 of them only have one victory each. In addition, there are no first time winners or a driver that could be declared an ‘underdog’ other than possibly Kasey Kahne after his struggles the past few seasons, but even that’s a stretch.
Kahne has 9 career wins in Cup including the 2 this season, so he is hardly an underdog.
Can the winless drivers still win?
There are ten races left in the season, but it may be a better opportunity for those drivers who are on the outside of the top 12 looking in to score a victory. It’s no secret that when a Chase/Championship contender is looking at ‘big picture’ points racing they are less likely to gamble with pit strategy or fuel mileage and the driver might not be as aggressive going for a win and settle for a top 5 finish to get the points. Those on the outside don’t have as much to lose as the drivers who are battling for the Championship and who also may take a more conservative approach.
Has the Champion already been determined?
You would like to think that some of the other drivers from 2nd on back in points are showing some vigor to catch the top driver in points, especially with the reset.
Carl Edwards started out the season strong, waned a bit in the middle and then came on strong again leading up to the Chase.
Jimmie Johnson has stepped back up with 3 wins since Indy with a total of 5 top 10’s. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is coming up on a stretch of tracks that he usually runs well at.
Greg Biffle, who has had a decent run recently finished 14th at the Richmond cutoff race, had a runner up finish two weeks ago at Fontana and a 4th at Michigan.
The next driver back who has placed consistently in the top 10 is Kevin Harvick finishing 8th or better in the past 6 races including 3 top 5’s.
Denny Hamlin has strung together 3-3rd place finishes in a row heading to the chase.
The points reset a saving grace?
The Chase points reset has brought all of the competitors in the top 12 a minimum of 80 points together and some as close as 30. It almost has to be looked at like a yellow flag in how it draws the field back up, but if the leader was driving away before, then there is the possibility that it will just happen again.
The three-way battle at the top that is getting a lot of media play might be the way that it continues, but as mentioned above there are some drivers whose performance the past five races could be indicative of a pattern and propel them to the top in one or two races.
Last season, Clint Bowyer went from 12th to 4th in one race with his win at Loudon and finished out the season 3rd in points.
Popular Winners and Champions
This is strictly based on past poll questions on this site, but the fans are not satisfied with the recent race winners and Championship Title holders. The current points leader and not coincidentally the driver with the most wins this season, Kyle Busch, wasn’t very popular with the fans even before he wrecked Dale Jr. at Richmond. Jimmie Johnson, the Champion last two years in a row was voted 8th most popular driver last year. Not saying that the fans would want a driver to be successful just because he is popular, but it would increase enthusiasm and interest in the sport if they were.
The new style car
The handling issues that the teams have been dealing with opened the door for the few that seemed to figure it out. The most frequent statements from the teams are that making adjustments before and during the race is like walking on a razorblade edge. What worked in the past adjustment-wise either has no affect or goes too far to the other side. When you hear a driver say that he is loose in [to the turn] tight in the center and then loose off, that’s three different adjustments needed that are all opposite in nature. It’s no wonder that a lot of the teams and crew chiefs have been left scratching their heads and tossing out old set-up note as they try to figure out what the car needs.
You almost have to chalk 2008 up as a big learning curve for the teams across the board. There is a pattern beginning to develop amongst the teams that you expect to perform well on a weekly basis, which could make for a very interesting battle for the Championship.
Where is the parity?
Maybe the true ‘parity’ aspect of the new style car is coming in 2009. Any time a sport goes through major changes like NASCAR did in the Cup series with implementation of the new car, there are going to be teams that get a handle on it quicker than others. Going into 2009 the normal ebb and flow of the team’s performance will show as well as the struggling teams getting a handle on their performance issues. Even though some of the teams excelled this season, expect even more to be up to speed come the drop of the green at Daytona in 2009. Perhaps that is when we will truly start to see the benefits of NASCAR’s directive and begin to see the competitiveness that we were all promised.
The final ten races
The pressure is off for the drivers out of the Chase and now they can start experimenting with set-ups and determining strategies that play in with the new car and its handling characteristics. This could be just what they needed to find that extra amount of competitiveness that they have been lacking.
The next ten races should divulge more than just who the Champ will be. It should show which teams are gaining ground on the new style car and give us a preview to what we can expect for next season as well.
Early season expectations
The predictions are based on the email comments we received from the fans at the start of the season in regards to how they thought the year would progress. The overwhelming majority said that because of the implementation of the COT there should be a wider array of winners, more first time winners and a more evenly matched chase field when it drew down to the end of the season.
Big names winless
We all expect to see certain teams struggle throughout the season and even a few top level teams dropping off in performance, but no one could have predicted the big names that are winless so far this season.
If someone had told you that at the beginning of the year that Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick would all be winless headed into the Chase you would have said they were crazy.
Lack of different winners, underdogs and first timers
After Richmond [the Chase cutoff] there have only been ten different winners and of those 6 of them only have one victory each. In addition, there are no first time winners or a driver that could be declared an ‘underdog’ other than possibly Kasey Kahne after his struggles the past few seasons, but even that’s a stretch.
Kahne has 9 career wins in Cup including the 2 this season, so he is hardly an underdog.
Can the winless drivers still win?
There are ten races left in the season, but it may be a better opportunity for those drivers who are on the outside of the top 12 looking in to score a victory. It’s no secret that when a Chase/Championship contender is looking at ‘big picture’ points racing they are less likely to gamble with pit strategy or fuel mileage and the driver might not be as aggressive going for a win and settle for a top 5 finish to get the points. Those on the outside don’t have as much to lose as the drivers who are battling for the Championship and who also may take a more conservative approach.
Has the Champion already been determined?
You would like to think that some of the other drivers from 2nd on back in points are showing some vigor to catch the top driver in points, especially with the reset.
Carl Edwards started out the season strong, waned a bit in the middle and then came on strong again leading up to the Chase.
Jimmie Johnson has stepped back up with 3 wins since Indy with a total of 5 top 10’s. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is coming up on a stretch of tracks that he usually runs well at.
Greg Biffle, who has had a decent run recently finished 14th at the Richmond cutoff race, had a runner up finish two weeks ago at Fontana and a 4th at Michigan.
The next driver back who has placed consistently in the top 10 is Kevin Harvick finishing 8th or better in the past 6 races including 3 top 5’s.
Denny Hamlin has strung together 3-3rd place finishes in a row heading to the chase.
The points reset a saving grace?
The Chase points reset has brought all of the competitors in the top 12 a minimum of 80 points together and some as close as 30. It almost has to be looked at like a yellow flag in how it draws the field back up, but if the leader was driving away before, then there is the possibility that it will just happen again.
The three-way battle at the top that is getting a lot of media play might be the way that it continues, but as mentioned above there are some drivers whose performance the past five races could be indicative of a pattern and propel them to the top in one or two races.
Last season, Clint Bowyer went from 12th to 4th in one race with his win at Loudon and finished out the season 3rd in points.
Popular Winners and Champions
This is strictly based on past poll questions on this site, but the fans are not satisfied with the recent race winners and Championship Title holders. The current points leader and not coincidentally the driver with the most wins this season, Kyle Busch, wasn’t very popular with the fans even before he wrecked Dale Jr. at Richmond. Jimmie Johnson, the Champion last two years in a row was voted 8th most popular driver last year. Not saying that the fans would want a driver to be successful just because he is popular, but it would increase enthusiasm and interest in the sport if they were.
The new style car
The handling issues that the teams have been dealing with opened the door for the few that seemed to figure it out. The most frequent statements from the teams are that making adjustments before and during the race is like walking on a razorblade edge. What worked in the past adjustment-wise either has no affect or goes too far to the other side. When you hear a driver say that he is loose in [to the turn] tight in the center and then loose off, that’s three different adjustments needed that are all opposite in nature. It’s no wonder that a lot of the teams and crew chiefs have been left scratching their heads and tossing out old set-up note as they try to figure out what the car needs.
You almost have to chalk 2008 up as a big learning curve for the teams across the board. There is a pattern beginning to develop amongst the teams that you expect to perform well on a weekly basis, which could make for a very interesting battle for the Championship.
Where is the parity?
Maybe the true ‘parity’ aspect of the new style car is coming in 2009. Any time a sport goes through major changes like NASCAR did in the Cup series with implementation of the new car, there are going to be teams that get a handle on it quicker than others. Going into 2009 the normal ebb and flow of the team’s performance will show as well as the struggling teams getting a handle on their performance issues. Even though some of the teams excelled this season, expect even more to be up to speed come the drop of the green at Daytona in 2009. Perhaps that is when we will truly start to see the benefits of NASCAR’s directive and begin to see the competitiveness that we were all promised.
The final ten races
The pressure is off for the drivers out of the Chase and now they can start experimenting with set-ups and determining strategies that play in with the new car and its handling characteristics. This could be just what they needed to find that extra amount of competitiveness that they have been lacking.
The next ten races should divulge more than just who the Champ will be. It should show which teams are gaining ground on the new style car and give us a preview to what we can expect for next season as well.
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