Predicting The Chase For Dale Earnhardt Jr.

After a slip in the points from 2nd to 4th from questionable pit strategy at Watkins Glen, what can the fans expect for the rest of the season for the no. 88 team? Before this article turns into a story about the crew chief on the team, let’s steer it over to the side of what tracks are left on the schedule and how Junior has finished on those tracks historically.

The next race is at Michigan where Earnhardt received his first and only (points) victory for 2008 which is still fresh in most peoples minds, but what about the rest of the tracks?

Below is the list of tracks and the number of wins at each or the highest finishing position for him.
* denotes 2nd race at this track in 2008
*Michigan [1-win 2008]
*Bristol [1-win] 2008 5th
*Fontana [2nd with 3-top 5’s] 2008 40th
*Richmond [3-wins] 2008 15th
CHASE BEGINS
*Loudon [3rd with 4 top 5’s] 2008 24th
*Dover [1-win] 2008 35th
Kansas [6th with 4-top 10’s]
*Talladega [5-wins] 2008 10th
*Charlotte [3rd with 5-top 5’s] 2008 5th
*Martinsville [3rd with 7 top 5’s] 2008 6th
*Atlanta [1-win] 2008 3rd
*Fort Worth [1-win] 2008 12th
*Phoenix [2-wins] 2008 7th
Homestead [13th with an average finish in 8 starts of 21.2]

Statistics.
Eight of the 14 tracks Earnhardt has at least one win at, 4 he has finishes in the top 5 with one [Kansas] just outside with a 6th and his worst track being Homestead with the stats shown above.

Improvements.
When Earnhardt was struggling the theme was that the car would start out good early in the race and fade as the race went on. In the case of last season on the upcoming stretch, motors were an issue as he suffered engine failures at Watkins Glen, Richmond and Talladega. In spite of the complaints in regards to Tony Eury, Jr. he has shown vast improvement in the ability to keep up with changing track conditions and staying ahead of the adjustments in the car. The other issue of motors has been a non-issue with the seemingly bullet-proof Hendrick power.

The Competition.
Kyle Busch, the fan-appointed nemesis of Dale Jr., sits solidly in the top spot and will continue to with his minimum 80 bonus points when the points reset.
Carl Edwards is a man as hungry as anyone for a championship and being from the Roush Camp wouldn’t surprise anyone if he cranked it up and came on strong during the last ten races.
Then with Jimmie Johnson, his performance this season has not mirrored those of his past two dominant runs, but you can never count him out especially with his position in points at the moment.

What it will take to win the Championship.
There have been seasons in the past where the driver who managed to run consistently, stay out of trouble and finish in the top 5 week after week had a legitimate chance to win the championship, but 2008 seems like that will not be enough. The talk of past years where each driver could have a “mulligan” and that one bad race probably wouldn’t take you out of contention for the championship doesn’t apply. Not only can the potential champ not afford a bad race, they will more than likely need at least two wins to even have a shot at it. When you look at the above mentioned three [Busch, Edwards & Johnson] you can almost guarantee that one of them will string together a minimum of a couple of victories and to have a chance a contender will have to do the same.

Can he do it?
Looking above at the list of tracks remaining on the schedule, Junior knows how to get around a large percentage of them where 15 of his 18 career wins have come on those tracks. It is however the same old story as every year past in that if one driver comes out and racks up multiple wins without stumbling, then they will probably be the champion. Who is to say that will not be Dale Earnhardt, Jr. though who pulls that off. More important than a feeling or hope, statistically he could do it.

Points Racing?
Talking about points racing in years past meant to go out, be safe and not necessarily go for the win. With the bar being set so high this season, points racing may now mean to go out and try to win the race at all costs. That could cause a shake up in the points and open the door for anyone in the chase to move up and contend, so it should be an interesting stretch to say the least going down to Homestead.