Have NASCAR Fans Gotten What They Wanted In 2008?

So far the predictions of a more competitive season have not panned out as earlier thought. The lack of different winners, usual suspects and first timers in victory lane and domination from one driver is not what was expected when the season began. Is this a trend or just a temporary condition that is sorting itself out as we speak?

Early season expectations
The predictions are based on the email comments we received from the fans at the start of the season in regards to how they thought the year would progress. The overwhelming majority said that because of the implementation of the COT there should be a wider array of winners, more first time winners and a more evenly matched chase field when it drew down to the end of the season.

Big names winless
We all expect to see certain teams struggle throughout the season and even a few top level teams dropping off in performance, but no one could have predicted the big names that are winless so far this season.
If someone had told you that at the beginning of the year that Jeff Gordon, Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, Matt Kenseth and Kevin Harvick would all be winless headed into the Chase you would have said they were crazy.

Lack of different winners, underdogs and first timers
After Richmond [the Chase cutoff] there have only been ten different winners and of those 6 of them only have one victory each. In addition, there are no first time winners or a driver that could be declared an ‘underdog’ other than possibly Kasey Kahne after his struggles the past few seasons, but even that’s a stretch.
Kahne has 9 career wins in Cup including the 2 this season, so he is hardly an underdog.

Can the winless drivers still win?
There are ten races left in the season, but it may be a better opportunity for those drivers who are on the outside of the top 12 looking in to score a victory. It’s no secret that when a Chase/Championship contender is looking at ‘big picture’ points racing they are less likely to gamble with pit strategy or fuel mileage and the driver might not be as aggressive going for a win and settle for a top 5 finish to get the points. Those on the outside don’t have as much to lose as the drivers who are battling for the Championship and who also may take a more conservative approach.

Has the Champion already been determined?
You would like to think that some of the other drivers from 2nd on back in points are showing some vigor to catch the top driver in points, especially with the reset.
Carl Edwards started out the season strong, waned a bit in the middle and then came on strong again leading up to the Chase.
Jimmie Johnson has stepped back up with 3 wins since Indy with a total of 5 top 10’s. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is coming up on a stretch of tracks that he usually runs well at.
Greg Biffle, who has had a decent run recently finished 14th at the Richmond cutoff race, had a runner up finish two weeks ago at Fontana and a 4th at Michigan.
The next driver back who has placed consistently in the top 10 is Kevin Harvick finishing 8th or better in the past 6 races including 3 top 5’s.
Denny Hamlin has strung together 3-3rd place finishes in a row heading to the chase.

The points reset a saving grace?
The Chase points reset has brought all of the competitors in the top 12 a minimum of 80 points together and some as close as 30. It almost has to be looked at like a yellow flag in how it draws the field back up, but if the leader was driving away before, then there is the possibility that it will just happen again.
The three-way battle at the top that is getting a lot of media play might be the way that it continues, but as mentioned above there are some drivers whose performance the past five races could be indicative of a pattern and propel them to the top in one or two races.
Last season, Clint Bowyer went from 12th to 4th in one race with his win at Loudon and finished out the season 3rd in points.

Popular Winners and Champions
This is strictly based on past poll questions on this site, but the fans are not satisfied with the recent race winners and Championship Title holders. The current points leader and not coincidentally the driver with the most wins this season, Kyle Busch, wasn’t very popular with the fans even before he wrecked Dale Jr. at Richmond. Jimmie Johnson, the Champion last two years in a row was voted 8th most popular driver last year. Not saying that the fans would want a driver to be successful just because he is popular, but it would increase enthusiasm and interest in the sport if they were.

The new style car
The handling issues that the teams have been dealing with opened the door for the few that seemed to figure it out. The most frequent statements from the teams are that making adjustments before and during the race is like walking on a razorblade edge. What worked in the past adjustment-wise either has no affect or goes too far to the other side. When you hear a driver say that he is loose in [to the turn] tight in the center and then loose off, that’s three different adjustments needed that are all opposite in nature. It’s no wonder that a lot of the teams and crew chiefs have been left scratching their heads and tossing out old set-up note as they try to figure out what the car needs.
You almost have to chalk 2008 up as a big learning curve for the teams across the board. There is a pattern beginning to develop amongst the teams that you expect to perform well on a weekly basis, which could make for a very interesting battle for the Championship.

Where is the parity?
Maybe the true ‘parity’ aspect of the new style car is coming in 2009. Any time a sport goes through major changes like NASCAR did in the Cup series with implementation of the new car, there are going to be teams that get a handle on it quicker than others. Going into 2009 the normal ebb and flow of the team’s performance will show as well as the struggling teams getting a handle on their performance issues. Even though some of the teams excelled this season, expect even more to be up to speed come the drop of the green at Daytona in 2009. Perhaps that is when we will truly start to see the benefits of NASCAR’s directive and begin to see the competitiveness that we were all promised.

The final ten races
The pressure is off for the drivers out of the Chase and now they can start experimenting with set-ups and determining strategies that play in with the new car and its handling characteristics. This could be just what they needed to find that extra amount of competitiveness that they have been lacking.

The next ten races should divulge more than just who the Champ will be. It should show which teams are gaining ground on the new style car and give us a preview to what we can expect for next season as well.